Leading in a World of Metaruptions: Reflections on Disruption with Roger Spitz

As the host of The Business of Government Hour, I’ve had the privilege of engaging with thought leaders who challenge conventional wisdom and offer actionable insights for navigating complex challenges. My recent in-person conversation with Roger Spitz, president of the Disruptive Futures Institute and author of Disrupt with Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World, was no exception. Roger, a futurist and expert in strategic foresight, joined me to explore how government leaders can embrace systemic disruption, build resilience, and drive meaningful outcomes in a world defined by uncertainty. 

This essay distills key takeaways from the discussion, outlines leadership lessons, and offers practical recommendations for government executives to apply these insights effectively.

Key Takeaways from the Conversation

Understanding Systemic Disruption and Metaruptions. During our conversation, Roger and I revisited his concept of “metaruptions”.  He emphasizes these types of disruptions are systemic, nonlinear change that interacts dynamically across sectors. He introduces this concept to contrast with traditional "mega-trends" or "meta-trends."

Unlike trends, which rely on past data and assume stable interactions, metaruptions are dynamic, unpredictable, and evolve over time with cascading second- and third-order effects.

For government leaders, this insight underscores the limitations of traditional forecasting models. The world is not a clockwork mechanism but a complex system where seemingly isolated events—like wildfires or cyberattacks—can cascade into broader societal impacts. Spitz’s framework encourages leaders to accept unpredictability as a feature of the modern landscape, not a flaw to be overcome.

Strategic Foresight as a Tool for Preparation, Not Prediction.A cornerstone of Spitz’s philosophy is that strategic foresight is about preparing for multiple futures rather than predicting a singular outcome.

He argues that the future is blending with the present at an accelerating pace, with events once considered "plausible" or even "impossible" becoming reality.

Spitz’s approach involves scenario planning and asking "what if" questions to broaden leaders’ apertures. This mindset shift—from predict-and-act to prepare-and-adapt—enables organizations to build resilience against shocks. In the public sector, where stability is often prized, this requires a cultural shift toward embracing uncertainty as an opportunity for innovation.

The Complex Five: Navigating Degrees of Uncertainty. To help leaders triage uncertainty, Spitz introduces the "Complex Five" framework, using animal metaphors to categorize different types of unknowns. During our discussion, he describe the categories down as follows:

• Gray Rhino: Known knowns, like a charging pandemic in its peak phase, where impacts are immediate and undeniable. Leaders must act defensively to mitigate damage.
• Black Elephant: Known unknowns, such as early pandemic signals or climate risks, which are visible but often ignored due to lack of alignment or action. These can escalate into Gray Rhinos if unaddressed.
• Black Jellyfish: Unknown knowns, representing second- or third-order effects, like jellyfish clogging nuclear reactors due to warming oceans. These are particularly treacherous because they require anticipating cascading impacts.
• Black Swan: Unknown unknowns, truly unpredictable events that defy foresight. Spitz notes that many so-called Black Swans are mislabeled, often resulting from ignored signals or unexamined assumptions.
• Butterfly Effect: Systemic, unpredictable changes amplified by small actions, highlighting the need for humility and adaptability.

When I asked which was most dangerous, Roger pointed to Black Jellyfish, as their cascading effects can catch even well-intentioned leaders off guard.

For government executives, this framework can offer a practical lens to prioritize risks and opportunities, ensuring they don’t dismiss early signals as irrelevant.

The Power of Narrative and Informed Optimism. Roger’s insights on the power of storytelling and narrative in shaping the future are compelling.  Drawing from the Snyder Hope Theory, he explains that narratives can foster agency by outlining goals, pathways, and the will to act. Roger also introduces the concept of informed optimism -- balancing candid acknowledgment of challenges with proactive hope that releases neurochemicals like oxytocin leading to the fostering trust and collaboration.

For public sector leaders, narratives can counteract the negative framing of "poly-crisis" or "perma-crisis," which often paralyzes action.

By crafting stories that emphasize agency and opportunity, leaders can inspire stakeholders to embrace change constructively.

He shared a powerful example from his work in Brazil, where the Disruptive Futures Institute helped shape legislation for high-integrity voluntary carbon credits, creating a virtuous tipping point that transformed the market.

Anticipatory Governance and the AAA Framework. Roger and I revisited his AAA framework—Antifragile foundations, Anticipatory thinking, and Agility and how it can help bolster in application and use the concept of anticipatory governance. This approach can help leaders to navigate unpredictability:

• Antifragile Foundations: Build systems that not only withstand shocks but improve from them, unlike fragile efficiency-driven models. For example, avoiding over-optimization (like zero-stock inventories) ensures buffers for unexpected disruptions.
• Anticipatory Thinking: Use scenario planning and "what if" exercises to prepare for multiple futures, reducing reliance on linear assumptions.
• Agility: Maintain adaptive strategies that incorporate real-time feedback, balancing long-term vision with immediate action.

This framework is particularly relevant for government leaders, who often operate in rigid, hierarchical systems. By fostering antifragility, they can create policies and structures that evolve with changing realities.

Leadership Lessons for Government Executives

Reflecting on our conversation, several leadership lessons emerged that I believe are critical for government executives:

1. Shift from Prediction to Preparation. Government leaders would benefit from moving away from the predict-and-act model, which assumes a stable, controllable world. Spitz’s emphasis on preparation over prediction encourages leaders to invest in scenario planning and resilience-building, ensuring agencies can adapt to unexpected events like cyberattacks or other future shocks that can happen now.
2. Embrace Systemic Thinking Leaders should adopt a systems perspective, recognizing that disruptions are interconnected and nonlinear. For instance, a cyberattack on a hospital could cascade into public health and economic impacts. Understanding these interconnections enables leaders to design policies that address root causes and secondary effects.
3. Foster a Culture of Informed Optimism By using narratives to highlight agency and pathways to success, leaders can inspire teams to view disruption as an opportunity. By framing disruption as an opportunity, executives can inspire teams to act with confidence. This is critical in the public sector, where risk-averse cultures often resist change.
4. Build Antifragile Systems Government agencies often prioritize efficiency, but Spitz warns that this can create fragility. Leaders should incorporate slack—such as financial reserves or redundant systems—to absorb shocks and enable adaptation.. For example, investing in cybersecurity redundancies can prevent cascading failures in critical infrastructure.
5. Value Inter-Disciplinary Perspectives Roger underscores the importance of diverse perspectives in navigating uncertainty. In complex systems, diverse teams amplify effective solutions and dampen flawed ones. Government leaders should foster decision-making processes that welcome inter-disciplinary perspectives that can help leaders uncover blind spots and promote innovative ideas.

Practical Recommendations for Government Executives

To help translate these insights into action, government executives can pursue the following strategies:

• Implement Strategic Foresight Programs Establish dedicated foresight units within agencies to conduct scenario planning and "what if" exercises. For example, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has a Center for Strategic Foresight that explores emerging trends. Executives can model similar initiatives, training staff to anticipate metaruptions.
• Adopt the AAA Framework Use Spitz’s AAA framework to guide policy and organizational design:
  • Antifragile Foundations: Allocate budgets for contingency planning, such as reserve funds for disaster response or cybersecurity investments. Avoid over-optimizing resources, which can leave agencies vulnerable to shocks.
  • Anticipatory Thinking: Conduct regular tabletop exercises to simulate scenarios like infrastructure failures or geopolitical shifts. Engage cross-agency teams to identify second- and third-order effects.
  • Agility: Create adaptive policy frameworks that allow for rapid updates based on new data. For instance, environmental regulations could include feedback loops to adjust to changing climate conditions.
• Leverage Storytelling for Change Management. Develop compelling narratives to communicate the need for change and inspire action. For example, when implementing new cybersecurity protocols, frame the initiative as a proactive step to protect citizens, rather than a reaction to threats. Use data-driven stories to build trust and alignment among stakeholders.
• Build Resilience Through Education and Policy. Invest in workforce development programs that teach systems thinking and strategic foresight. Partner with organizations that can help to train staff on navigating uncertainty. Additionally, enact policies that incentivize resilience, such as subsidies for green infrastructure or mandates for cybersecurity audits.
• Encourage Cross-Sector Collaboration. Spitz notes that sectors are blending, with public and private challenges converging. Government executives should collaborate with private sector innovators and academic institutions to share best practices. For instance, joint task forces on AI governance can ensure policies keep pace with technological advancements.
• Monitor and Triage the Complex Five. Use Spitz’s Complex Five framework to prioritize risks. Regularly assess which issues are Gray Rhinos (immediate threats), Black Elephants (ignored risks), or Black Jellyfish (cascading effects). For example, aging infrastructure might be a Black Elephant—visible but unaddressed—requiring urgent investment to prevent collapse.

Conclusion

Roger Spitz’s insights from The Business of Government Hour offer a roadmap for government executives navigating an unpredictable world. By embracing systemic disruption, adopting strategic foresight, and fostering informed optimism, leaders can transform challenges into opportunities. The AAA framework—Antifragile foundations, Anticipatory thinking, and Agility—provides a practical toolkit for building resilient organizations. As Spitz warns, waiting for a return to "normal" is futile; instead, leaders must accept turbulence as the new reality and prepare accordingly. By implementing foresight programs, leveraging storytelling, and fostering diverse perspectives, government executives can lead with confidence, ensuring their agencies not only survive but thrive amid disruption.

For more information on Spitz’s work, visit the Disruptive Futures Institute’s website or explore Disrupt with Impact, available in most major bookstores. As we move deeper into 2025, the unraveling of global structures and the rise of metaruptions will demand bold, adaptive leadership. Government executives who heed Spitz’s call to prepare, not predict, will be best positioned to shape a resilient future.